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A recession is indicated not by significant declines in any one of these indicators, but rather by declines in all or nearly all of these benchmarks simultaneously.Industrial production has been declining rapidly since September 2000, for example, while employment has fallen since the first quarter of 2001.Note that the Committee identifies the month when the trough occurred, without taking a stand on the date in the month.In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur and the Committee has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction.
The Committee considers a “recession” or contraction as a period of diminishing (vs diminished) activity and an expansion as a period of increasing economic activity. On average over time, the economy is always growing, but it also moves through phases of stronger and weaker growth—and occasionally it slips into reverse.Predictably, several age-old economic questions are being asked: A growing economy is described as being in expansion. history; the average expansion dating back to 1854 lasted about three years. The last recession occurred between July 1990 and March 1991 and was about half as long as the average recession, which lasts 18 months.Firstly, the primary meaning of business cycle refers to fluctuations in economic output in a country or countries.
These are the well known phases of the business cycle such as recession, depression, recovery, and expansion. This business cycle often parallels changes in stock market prices, which are part of the stock market cycle.Specifically, the Committee identifies a month when the economy reached a peak of activity and a later month when the economy reached a trough.